Dodging the bullet: How crises trigger technocrat‐led governments

Governments led by nonpartisan, ‘technocratic’ prime ministers are a rare phenomenon in parliamentary democracies, but have become more frequent since the late 1980s. This article focuses on the factors that lead to the formation of such cabinets. It posits that parliamentary parties with the chance to win the prime ministerial post will only relinquish it during political and economic crises that drastically increase the electoral costs of ruling and limit policy returns from governing. Statistical analyses of 469 government formations in 29 European democracies between 1977 and 2013 suggest that political scandals and economic recessions are major drivers of the occurrence of technocratic prime ministers. Meanwhile, neither presidential powers nor party system fragmentation and polarisation have any independent effect. The findings suggest that parties strategically choose technocrat‐led governments to shift blame and re‐establish their credibility and that of their policies in the face of crises that de‐legitimise their rule.     

欧债危机对欧洲华裔青少年华文教育的影响及其对策

本文分析了欧债危机对欧洲华裔青少年华文教育的主要影响及分析其造成影响的主要原因,从政府、华文学校和华人家庭的视角,为欧洲华裔青少年华文教育的问题提出相应的对策建议。     

The Woman Victim in a Country in Crisis: A Reading of Tagwira's The Uncertainty of Hope

The article is based on my reading of Valerie Tagwira’s The Uncertainty of Hope as a feminist text that portrays female victimhood in the context of a failing postcolonial state. Tagwira writes about the experiences of a woman against the background of Murambatsvina, officially termed ‘‘Operation Clean Up.’’ The Zimbabwean Operation Clean Up of 2005 was condemned worldwide; and in her novel, Tagwira gives an often-ignored dimension of a woman’s experience of it, in the general context of a country facing serious political, economic and social challenges. For Tagwira, the challenges faced by Onai, as well as those around her, do not have links to their racial identities. Thus, Tagwira redefines the enemyvictim trope of the Third Chimurenga by subverting the state’s interpretation of the struggle discourse of the Third Chimurenga. In the state’s discourse, the victim trope is racial, the state enemy is the former colonial master (in support of the opposition political party) and the victim is the previously colonised black. In my analysis, I have used Susan Wendell’s theory on oppression and victimisation as contained in her article Oppression and Victimization: Choice and Responsibility (1990).     

资本主义国家工会危机对中国工会的警示

目前资本主义国家工会正在遭遇重大危机,大部分资本主义国家的工会组织建制率出现了持续下降的趋势.与之相反,中国工会“一枝独秀”,工会组织建制率和职工入会率不断攀升.但是中国工会不能在数字面前盲目乐观、高枕无忧,应警惕资本主义国家工会危机,强化中国工会群众性基础.资本主义国家工会危机与其工会自身存在的问题密切相关,尤其是与其不断弱化的群众基础有直接关系.中国工人阶级呈现“国际重组”的队伍特征、中国工人阶级的“自觉、自为”意识逐渐觉醒、中国工人阶级组织化呈现多条途径,工人阶级出现的这些特征变化都要求中国工会强化群众性基础.扩大工会会员范围、切实履行工会维权职责、创新工会服务职工的活动内容是强化中国工会群众性基础的路径策略.     

危机谈判的训练设计与方法选择

危机谈判训练是一种以谈判沟通技巧为基础技能,针对不同案件类型展开的警务技能训练,也是一种基于危机现场警务运作模式展开的工作机制训练,因此,危机谈判训练方法也分为技能训练方法和工作机制的训练方法,其中后者可以类推到以工作机制为训练目标的警务指挥、应急指挥训练中。     

The political and economic causes of satisfaction with democracy in Spain – a twofold panel study

This study tests the links between political and economic performance and satisfaction with democracy (SWD) in Spain. Contrary to the dominant theoretical paradigm that explains the aggregate evolution of and the individual-level differences in SWD mainly by means of economic factors, the article presents evidence that evaluations of the political process are equally relevant to account for both changes in individuals’ SWD over time and the evolution of SWD at the national level. Unlike most existing literature, this study supports its argument by combining analyses of a micro-level panel dataset (CIUPANEL) and of a pooled aggregate-level panel dataset based on the Spanish samples in the Eurobarometer and the Latinobarómetro between 1986 and 2014.     

如何认识当前的国际经济危机——兼评外国学者的各种见解

当前仍在持续的国际性经济危机,本质上是资本主义生产方式的危机。这次危机不仅使传统资本主义模式难以为继,也宣告了新自由资本主义的破产。但资本主义制度不会就此退出历史舞台,而是将在资本主义制度范围内通过深刻的变革而实现模式转型。中国作为新兴的市场经济大国,已经不可避免地处于国际性的经济危机之中了,其内因是基本的。为此,必须深刻总结30多年来改革发展的经验教训,适当转变改革思路和发展方式,走一条既符合一般规律又符合中国国情的发展道路。     

警察心理危机干预探讨

警察心理危机的现状,要求学界在对数据和事实分析的基础上,建立健全警察心理危机干预的措施和方法,帮助警察改变自身对事件的认知方向、全方位构建有助于警察心理健康的社会支持系统、建立科学的心理咨询服务中心的工作机制等,以期对警察心理危机干预产生良好的作用。     

美国金融危机对东亚新兴经济体的贸易传染渠道分析

美国金融危机到底以何种方式在全球传播，以至于演变成全球经济海啸，一直是近几年学术界所关注的问题之一。本文以美国金融危机对外传播的贸易传染渠道为切人点，分析了美国金融危机通过贸易伙伴型传染和贸易竞争对手型传染这两个贸易传染子渠道对东亚新兴经济体的溢出程度。对面板数据进行的GLS实证结果显示，美国金融危机通过贸易传染渠道的溢出，与大部分东亚新兴经济体经济波动之间存在10％以上显著性水平的相关性，因而贸易传染渠道是美国金融危机对东亚溢出的一个重要机制。     

论金融危机下发展权面临的挑战与出路

在全球金融危机中受到影响最大的是发展中国家及其人民的发展权利。危机对发展权的挑战,不仅体现在经济发展领域,也反映在社会文化以至政治发展层面,进而衍生为人的生存发展危机。要摆脱危机,就必须重新塑造发展权法治理念,从传统的形式平等和社会正义迈向一种新的正义观即发展正义,从现有的公法强制干预和私法自由调节转向政策性平衡新机制,在全球社会连带中实现自主发展。在这些新理念导引下,于法律重心的发展权定位、发展权指标体系的法律化以及强化国际与国内公共权力对发展权的法律责任三大方面进行制度建设,确立公共权力对发展权的自觉意识和可归责性、建立全球性的发展权法律标准以及危机预警与干预系统。